Solutions for Climate Change in Colombia: NCS for NDC

In Colombia 62% of total GHG emissions comes from the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, mainly from deforestation (36%) and conventional cattle ranching practices. The Industry, Transportation, Energy, Residential and Waste sectors represent 11%, 11%, 10%, 4% and 2% of total GHG emissions, respectively. By 2018 the total area of natural forests in Colombia was ca. 60 Mha, but the rate of deforestation during the last decade has increased dramatically, risking the achievement of the NDC goal of the country.

NDC reduction target of Colombia is 20% compared with the baseline, which represents an emission reduction of around 67 Mt CO2e yr-1 by 2030. According to Griscom et al. (2020), Avoided Forest Conversion, Reforestation (which we call Forest Restoration and is focused on natural forests and excludes commercial plantations), and Tress in Ag Lands (for which in our case we only include silvopastoral systems) are the three NCS pathways with the largest potential to cost-effectively meet NDC targets in Latin America, including Colombia.

Main advances so far

During the first stages of the NCS for NDCs – Colombia project we also compared all possible NCS pathways that might be implemented in Colombia, and ranked their importance according to i) mitigation potential, ii) data availability, iii) internal capacities to conduct future analyses, iv) co-benefits, and v) approximate cost-effectiveness. For doing that we consulted experts from the government, other NGOs, research institutions, etc. At the end we obtained a list of eight NCS pathways of high importance for Colombia, although our decision was to be focused on the three first pathways for this project and include the rest in future analyses: 1) Avoided Forest Conversion, 2) Forest Restoration, 3) Trees in Ag Lands (silvopastoral), 4) Avoided Peatlands Conversion, 5) Avoided Wetlands Conversion, 6) Avoided Natural Savannas Conversion, 7) Natural Forest Management, and 8) Wetlands Restoration (Figure 1).

After selecting the pathways of interest for this assessment, we conducted an analysis to establish the maximum mitigation potential of each pathway in the country for the period 2018 – 2030. For doing that we used country- or region-specific emission/removal factors and maps developed by official technical institutions, research institutions or TNC Colombia.

The maximum mitigation potential of Avoided Forest Conversion was estimated by using the following maps (scale 1:100,000) and model:

i)                    Forest – Non forest 2018,

ii)                   Carbon content in above-ground biomass based on life zones (Temperature + Precipitation),

iii)                 Model of deforestation 2018 – 2030.

As result, we found that the maximum potential mitigation from Avoided Forest Conversion is 0.22 Gt CO2e yr-1 by 2030 over an area of 7.1 Mha (Figure 2).

In the case Forest Restoration, the maximum mitigation potential was estimated by using the following maps (scale 1:100,000):

i)                    Agriculture Frontier (this map gives us official information on land aptitude/suitability for Colombia, including areas where land aptitude is conservation or restoration),

ii)                   Ecosystems (also official information about natural ecosystems in Colombia),

iii)                 Natural Savannas (it’s a category of the Ecosystems map and was used as a mask to prevent afforestation activities on natural ecosystems),

iv)                 Forest – Non forest 2018,

v)                   Deforestation 2010 – 2018 (according to national legislation all areas deforested during this period must be subject to restoration activities,

vi)                 Paramos (it’s another category of the Ecosystems map and was used as a mask to prevent afforestation activities on natural ecosystems),

vii)               National Restoration Plan (this is an official initiative that aims to restore degraded areas in the country, and includes forest restoration, silvopastoral systems among others).

As result, we found that the maximum potential mitigation from Forest Restoration is 0.12 Gt CO2e yr-1 by 2030 over an area of 15.1 Mha (Figure 3).

Finally, the maximum mitigation potential of Trees in Ag Lands was estimated by using the following maps (scale 1:100,000):

i)                    Agriculture Frontier (in this case, the map gives us official information on land aptitude for cattle ranching activities [beef and milk] in Colombia where silvopastoral initiatives might be implemented),

ii)                   Ecosystems (also official information about natural ecosystems in Colombia),

iii)                 Natural Savannas (it’s a category of the Ecosystems map and was used as a mask to prevent afforestation activities on natural ecosystems),

iv)                 Forest – Non forest 2018,

v)                   Deforestation 2010 – 2018 (according to national legislation all areas deforested during this period must be subject to restoration activities,

vi)                 Paramos (it’s another category of the Ecosystems map and was used as a mask to prevent afforestation activities on natural ecosystems),

vii)               National Restoration Plan (this is an official initiative that aims to restore degraded areas in the country, and includes forest restoration, silvopastoral systems among others).

As result, we found that the maximum potential mitigation from Trees in Ag Lands is 0.08 Gt CO2e yr-1 by 2030 over an area of 10.7 Mha (Figure 4).